La OCDE ha apuntado que la recuperación está avanzando en las economías más desarrolladas pero se esta estancando el comercio mundial y se ha producido un deterioro en los mercados financieros que están influyendo en la mayoría de las grandes economías emergentes.
Estados Unidos
El incremento del empleo y del consumo de los hogares están siendo las palancas del crecimiento sólido que está experimentando Estados Unidos pero los niveles de inversión continúan siendo bajos.
Zona Euro
El crecimiento en la zona euro está mejorando pero no tan rápido como se esperaría dado el bajo nivel del precio del petróleo, los bajos tipos de interés y el valor del euro actual.
Japón
En Japón, el crecimiento está en el buen camino, pero aún tienen pendiente el incremento de los salarios que potenciará el consumo para conseguir el objetivo de inflación del Banco Central de Japón.
China
La situación de la economía china a corto plazo es el rompecabezas clave a resolver. El crecimiento ha resistido bien pero algunos indicadores apuntan a un ritmo más lento de la actividad económica. La marcada desaceleración de la demanda de importaciones de China tiene efectos secundarios en el crecimiento mundial, en particular en las economías emergentes con estrechos vínculos comerciales con China que dependen de las commodities.
Resto de economías emergentes
Se espera que India pase a ser la economía emergente de mayor crecimiento en los próximos dos años, mientras que las expectativas son más débiles para muchas naciones exportadoras de materias primas, con Brasil sumido en una profunda recesión.
El impacto de una desaceleración de la demanda china mayor de la esperada afectará directamente al comercio y las inversiones, especialmente a aquellos países más expuestos, pero no frenará la recuperación de la economía mundial a no ser que venga combinada con una gran corrección en los mercados financieros a nivel global.
Catherine L. Mann, Economista Jefe de la OCDE ha apuntado que “Las previsiones para el crecimiento global se han debilitado ligeramente y el panorama global se ha visto ensombrecido por incertidumbres importantes”. Catherine también añadió que “Las economías emergentes tienen vulnerabilidades que pueden verse expuestas ante una subida de los tipos de interés en Estados Unidos y/o una mayor desaceleración en China, incrementando las turbulencias económicas y financieras que podrían impactar significativamente a las economías más desarrolladas. Se hace necesario establecer políticas de estímulo para apoyar la demanda mundial, pero las medidas adoptadas por los distintos países deberán ser compatibles con la estabilidad financiera global y el crecimiento a largo plazo”.
La OCDE preve que Estados Unidos crezca un 2,4% este año y un 2,6% en 2016, mientras que las expectativas para el Reino Unido son un 2,4% y un 2,3% respectivamente. Las previsiones para Japón son de un crecimiento del 0,6% para 2015 y un 1,2% para 2016.
En el caso de la zona euro, está previsto un crecimiento del 1,6% en 2015 y un 1,9% para 2016. Las previsiones difieren mucho en las grandes economías de la zona euro. Las previsiones para Alemania son un crecimiento del 1,6% en 2015 y un 2% en 2016 mientras que Italia se preve que crezca un 0,7 y un 1,3 % respectivamente.
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