CEOE revisa al alza sus estimaciones del PIB para la economía española, con un aumento del 3,3% en 2015, mientras que, en 2016, el crecimiento podría moderarse levemente. En consecuencia, España crecerá más que la media de la Eurozona, ampliando de nuevo su diferencial positivo en este periodo, según se pone de manifiesto en las previsiones realizadas por los servicios técnicos de la Confederación.
La composición del crecimiento no ha cambiado. La demanda interna seguirá siendo el principal protagonista de la actividad, mientras que la aportación del sector exterior es más equilibrada. Todos los componentes del PIB registrarán tasas de crecimiento positivo en 2015 y 2016, siendo los más dinámicos la inversión de bienes de equipo y las importaciones. El consumo privado superará crecimientos del 3% en 2015 y la inversión en construcción se situará en el 5%.
Todo ello influirá positivamente en el mercado laboral. Entre 2015 y 2016, la creación de empleo será de algo más de un millón de personas. En 2015, el aumento de los ocupados se situará alrededor de los 530.000 y de los 495.000 en 2016, en términos de la EPA.
Inflación
Las previsiones de CEOE señalan que los mínimos históricos de inflación podrían continuar debido al nuevo recorte de los precios del petróleo. En 2015, la inflación podría ser de nuevo negativa en media anual (-0,4%) y en 2016 se anticipa un repunte hasta el 1,2%, siempre y cuando se produzca una recuperación gradual del precio del petróleo y no haya aumentos de impuestos.
A pesar de las perspectivas de menor dinamismo de la economía mundial, la economía española mantendría superávit de la cuenta corriente en 2015, con tasas alrededor del 1,4% del PIB, y en 2016, podría situarse en el 1,2% del PIB.
Con estas tasas de crecimiento, los objetivos del déficit público son factibles, según CEOE.
Este escenario está sujeto a riesgos en ambos sentidos, tanto al alza como a la baja, aunque en 2015 predominan al alza y en 2016 a la baja.
Entre los riesgos al alza cabe señalar:
- Un impacto mayor al previsto de las medidas adoptadas por el BCE en la mejora de las condiciones financieras y, en consecuencia, en la reactivación de la inversión y del crédito en Europa.
- Que la política fiscal menos restrictiva en España tenga un efecto positivo sobre el consumo mayor y más duradero que el previsto.
- Que la mayor flexibilidad del mercado laboral y las nuevas medidas para la contratación favorezcan una mayor creación de empleo en España.
- Que el precio del petróleo descienda y contribuya en mayor medida al aumento de la renta y a la reducción del saldo comercial.
Los riesgos a la baja son:
- Que se acentúe la inestabilidad financiera en China, con el consecuente impacto en algunos mercados emergentes y se produzca una notable desaceleración de la economía mundial.
- Que se produzcan nuevos brotes de incertidumbre financiera en algunas economías de la Eurozona y Rusia y tengan un efecto negativo en las economías más endeudadas.
- Que se estanquen las economías centrales de la Unión Europea.
- Un repunte continuado de las importaciones y una falta de impulso de las exportaciones que impida equilibrar el sector exterior.
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