Buenas noticias, los griegos sacan el dinero de los bancos, lo que quiere decir que hay más dinero en circulación para reactivar la economía». Se trata de un «tweet» completamente verídico
lanzado por Podemos el jueves de la semana que hoy acaba. Creo que no hace falta incorporar ninguna opinión o interpretación, por ser respetuosos, pero sí merece la pena subrayar que este es el planteamiento económico de una fuerza política que pretende gestionar la economía de nuestro país. Ojito.
Por otro lado, no quiero dejar de referirme a una mezcla de conceptos que barajó el máximo líder de esta formación en un conocido programa de televisión al calificar como empresa lo que es solo una sociedad mercantil de un compañero suyo de ideas. Estoy seguro que cualquier manual del tipo cómo ser un experto en derecho mercantil en solo diez lecciones recoge de forma muy sencillita los significados de ambos conceptos. Desconocer esa diferencia refleja no saber lo que es levantarse cada día con la presión de tener una serie de gastos fijos, personas y medios técnicos que tienen que funcionar adecuadamente para elaborar un producto o servicio que se venda adecuadamente para, como mínimo, pagar las nóminas, los gastos, los impuestos locales, regionales y nacionales, los créditos, las inversiones, etc, etc, etc. Estoy convencido de que este desconocimiento está en la base misma de la falta de reconocimiento que aún existe en España respecto a la figura del empresario.
Pero mientras se producen esos debates, volvamos a la economía de la calle. Cada día recibimos un nuevo indicador que viene a transmitir que la situación está mejorando en términos generales. Esto no significa que la mejora haya alcanzado a todos, ni que hayamos abandonado situaciones muy dramáticas, pero en líneas generales, la curva de situación que iba irremediablemente hacia terrenos muy negativos ha cambiado su tendencia hacia un área donde hay oxígeno. El último dato es la consolidación del consumo privado, básicamente por la mejora del empleo y del crédito. En cuanto al empleo, con las herramientas surgidas de la reforma laboral de Báñez, hemos logrado en España ganarle el pulso al neokeynesiano Arthur Okun. Su famosa ley que exigía un crecimiento del PIB superior 2,6% para mantener el empleo ha sido barrida porque en los últimos meses hemos crecido al 1,4% y, sin embargo, el empleo ha crecido un 1%.
Respecto a la actividad exterior, el llamado Indicador Sintético de Actividad Exportadora (ISAE) se situó en el cuarto trimestre del año pasado en 18,2 puntos, es decir, más de diez puntos por encima del trimestre anterior. Esto es muy relevante porque es una encuesta en la que se refleja el estado de opinión de las empresas respecto a su actividad exterior y, la percepción demuestra que es buena.
Llegados a este punto, parece veraz afirmar que estamos ya en plena recuperación. Ahora solo caben dos caminos: nos dejamos llevar por la corriente que hemos logrado generar entre todos durante estos años de sacrificio, o aprovechamos este movimiento favorable para construir las bases de lo que debería ser una posición económica sólida para las próximas décadas.
Creo que lo más responsable sería la segunda opción, es decir, continuar con la senda reformista de los últimos años para afianzar la recuperación. El aplazamiento de las reformas no haría más que debilitar la posición relativa de la economía española. En esta línea de aportaciones pragmáticas a nuestra política económica se encuentra el novedoso trabajo iniciado en CEIM y que ha venido a denominarse Proyecto 400.000 empleos. El recién elegido presidente de esta institución empresarial, Juan Pablo Lázaro, vino a definirlo como una iniciativa que emana de las propias empresas hacia sus representantes para detectar los instrumentos concretos con los que ser más competitivos, creando más empleo y riqueza. Se trata de aprovechar en la Comunidad de Madrid la oportunidad para sentar las bases de un crecimiento a largo plazo muy sólido e inclusivo cuyos beneficios de mayor bienestar económico lleguen a toda la sociedad.
Tenemos la responsabilidad de lograr entre todos modernizar la estructura económica para alcanzar niveles de productividad y tasas de desempleo comparables con países como Estados Unidos. Necesitamos mercados laborales más flexibles y con menores cargas sociales, impuestos más bajos, administraciones públicas eficientes y sostenibles presupuestariamente y mayor capital humano y más empleable de acuerdo con las necesidades reales del tejido productivo. Nada de esto se puede improvisar, de ahí la importancia de no romper la inercia reformista a pesar de los cuatro procesos electorales que tenemos este año por delante. No se trata simplemente de crear más empresas, sino de intentar que crezcan en dimensión tanto las que nacen como las que se mantienen para afrontar la demanda con más garantías.
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